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“Dealing with Uncertainty in Estimates, Projects and Plans” will touch on what many professions face: The dilemma of uncertain measures.  In the past several years, a number of important developments have changed how we understand, compute and report uncertainty of all types. While the course should apply to any technical or finance professional seeking CPE, the examples used will be from the energy sector (oil and gas in particular), including instructional examples on such issues as project duration, reserve estimates, and completion costs.

Students who attend this course will:

  • Review basic concepts, such as the differences in “risk” and “uncertainty” and, how different professions use slightly different meanings, which can lead to errors, omissions and other problems.
  • Receive a review and bibliography of important developments from the middle of the 20th century through the present.  This review will show the connections between “hard sciences,” “finance,” “management” and “soft science.”  This section will feature Nobel Prize winning work which reshapes our definition of best practices.
  • Experience “calibration” as a subject matter expert.  This hands on experience will provide understanding of how biases and cognition can color how estimates, even from the best qualified sources can be prone to bias.  Calibration certificates will be provided.
  • Review the most appropriate math and modeling methods to deal with uncertainty.
  • Review the ethics of reporting uncertain information, and how different professions may use different standards, leading to misunderstanding, misstatements, and confusion.
  • Summarize the best practices dealing with uncertain information, it’s collection, it’s calibration, computing with uncertain information, and it’s reporting,
  • Be provided with a self-study guide for those who wish additional understanding.  Sections 1 and 2 will be accompanied with resource lists and bibliographies for students who wish to pursue additional understanding.

The course will be held on April 24th at Lone Star’s offices, 4555 Excel Parkway, Addison, TX at 2:30 PM. Presenters will include Steve Roemerman, Lone Star CEO and John Volpi, Lone Star’s CTO and developer of TruNavigator℠, a 5th generation Decision Analysis modeling environment that generates simulations providing a true understanding of the range of potential outcomes for any decision, regardless of size or complexity. It tests customers’ decisions and identifies probable future outcomes based on related influences.

For further information, please contact Jessica Rosenbaum, jrosenbaum@lone-star.com or 817-637-0308.

About Lone Star

Lone Star Analysis is a trusted provider of enhanced decision analysis, business modeling and simulation, and executive advisory support.  Lone Star is committed to delivering improved operational and financial performance, as well as reduced cost and risk. This has been accomplished through accurate and actionable solutions to clients’ most critical strategic and tactical challenges.  Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Lone Star provides support to clients in the Military & Intelligence, Aerospace & Defense, Oil & Gas, and Communications & Technology.

Lone Star Aerospace, Inc. ● 4555 Excel Parkway ● Suite 500 ● Addison, TX 75001

Tel: 972-690-9494   Fax: 972-690-9495   www.lone-star.com