So how do you make a good decision? Ronald Howard, the founder of the decision analysis discipline says, “You make sure you are framing the decision correctly, otherwise you are getting the right answer to the wrong question. Howard believes it’s a matter of characterizing the alternatives, assessing the available information, which is expressed in terms of possibilities, even if you don’t know what the exact odds are – and expressing your preferences. (Howard says the whole idea of probability is to be able to describe by numbers your ignorance.)
The link to this Harvard Business Review article presents a cogent explanation of decision analysis in uncomplicated terms. Justin Fox the author of this article goes into some everyday examples of how decision analysis would approach good decision making.